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How the predictions of PNR is calculated?  
1 Answers
Feb 01 2013 (12:28)

Entry# 1472     
Mayiladuthurai The Undisputed King Of Mainline*^
How the predictions of PNR is calculated?

Feb 01 2013 (12:19)
Blog Post# 657794-2     
Soumitra Chawathe*^~   Added by: Mayiladuthurai The Undisputed King Of Mainline*^  Feb 01 2013 (12:28)
Posting Reply got from Mod sir in pvt, to let others also know this query.
PNR Accuracy = No. of Correct Predictions/Total Predictions. Cancelled tickets don't count.
PNR Predictions are separated into 3 slabs:
(< 30 days),
Recent (30 - 60 days) and
Old (> 60 days) predictions.
Each of the 3 slabs have their independent PNR Accuracies calculated using the simple formula shown above.
To get the Aggregate accuracy, we average out all 3 of the above numbers, but provide different weightages.
Recent Predictions get twice the weight of Old Predictions.
Current Predictions get twice the weight of Recent Predictions.
We have done this because people's PNR Accuracy usually improves with time, as they get more experience, and we do not want their old bad predictions to reduce their overall accuracy %.
Say you have made 200 total predictions out of which 100 were correct.
100 Tot Predictions/60 correct were made before 60 days - OLD
70 Tot Predictions/30 correct within 30-60 days - RECENT
30 Tot Predictions/10 correct within 30 days - CURRENT
Your accuracy % is:
(60*1 + 30*2 + 10*4)/(100*1 + 70*2 + 30*4) = 44%
In the example, you have made 50% total correct predictions 100/200. But in the past 30 days, you only got 10/30 correct. Since we give more weight to current predictions, your overall accuracy is only 44%."
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