Mumbai to Goa is the no.1 short distance air traffic route in India, with 12 lac pax per annum or about 3500 paxs per day.
In fact Mum-Goa along with Mumbai-Ahmedabad (5th rank) with 11-lac paxs per annum (3200 pax per day) are the only 2 short routes (500km) in the top 10 air routes of India.
The only 3 air routes with higher number of paxs is
(1)...
more... 32 lacs-Delhi-Mumbai (1400km)
(2) 18 lacs-Delhi-Bengaluru (2400km)
(3) 17 lacs-Mumbai-Bengaluru (1200km)
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So Mumbai Goa is one of the top routes for Tejas, but to achieve success, the Tejas have to operate at 160kmph and cover the distance in about 4 hrs to wean away the existing traffic from airlines as well as from road-(luxury buses & private cars). 2 full length Mum-Goa Tejas shall be required even if the Tejas could attract 40-50 % of air traffic.
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French TGV trains after introduction have eaten up a majority of traffic of airlines in France so that the no. of flights between TGV connected cities have been drastically reduced. Speed of Rail is the most important factor in this competition. A HST can cover Mumbai-Goa in just 2 hrs and can open up a large number of possibilities.
(1) 80% of existing air traffic 2800 pax per day. More over The air traffic is currently increasing @ 20% per annum.
and a big chunk of luxury bus/taxi/ private car traffic can be expected to switch over to such a HST.
(2) Few thousands of paxs from road are target for the HSTs which can be attracted by introducing economical ACDD HST services (As are being operated in TGV network)
(3) Some HSTs stop at intermediate stations and get additional paxs in addition to Mum-Goa non-stop HST.
(4) With successful marketing strategy, HST could attract traffic enough to operate about 3-5 daily HS trains between Mumbai-Goa.
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But with current timetable and hopelessly low speed (50kmph) leading to a highly-inconvenient very-long ac chair car journey (10:30 hrs), MUM-Karmali (overnight) Tejas, as well as Karmal-Mumbai (day journey) Tejas, are likely to have poor passenger patronage. Only name "Tejas" is not enough to attract paxs. It has to be really "Tej "with 100kmph+ avg speed (5-6hr journey) to taste success.