There is difference in the intensity indicated by the terms economic depression and economic slowdown. Such similar economic terms indicating fine differences indicated by similar economic terms often elude the thoughts for a person not graduating in economics , like me. Today economic growth is slow and the situation of industries is not so bad.
WHO IS FACING THE ECONOMIC BRUNT
Today the pinch of economic slowdown is felt mainly by the middle class people, especially the salaried ones, due to substantial increase in IT paid by them in...
more... real terms. (IT Slabs have not been proportionately increased for many years which means the effective rate of tax has increased). BJP vouched to increase the minimum taxable income to Rs 5 lacs about 4-5 years back during UPA regime (to woo the educated middle class salaried people), is still taxing them to highest ever level, by sticking to the age old limit of Rs 2.5 lacs only.
WHO IS THE BENEFICIARY
In India, the percentage of assets owned by top few % have increased in an alarming rate which is a direct consequence of lowering of interest rates on deposits. Industrialists are earning a lot as the financial results of industries/companies had been in general good over the years. Whereas those who are lending money (savings mostly done by salaried people), hardly get any benefit in real terms (i.e. interest rate after deduction of tax is equal to or lower than the inflation/cost of living). If we practically compare the real inflation in cost of education and edibles the biggest expenses for a common man, the prevailing interest rates are much lower than inflation.
In the current scenario, as very much evident during UPA-2, most of the benefits of development/ growth of national economy are reaped by the trio of industrialists-politicians-bureaucrats. The majority of the benefits of the natural resources exploited by the nation goes to the triad. The small business and small industries are not getting benefited so much as they cannot operate at higher level, a necessary requirement to be a part of the nexus.
CHANGING TIMES
About 20 years back, the rate of interests for long term deposits in financial institutions/GoI (12-15% p.a) were much higher than inflation (7-8%). So the real term savings done were helping in increasing the assets/net-worth of the investors. Today, interest rates are almost the same as inflation i.e. savings of salaried persons does not get any real term appreciation, but infact gets depreciated by a percent or 2 after deduction of Income tax. So people believe in spending more and saving less (American style) which boosts the industrial production. As a result, the assets hold by the middle class salaried people has decreased over the years.
THANK GOD LOWER STRATA HAVE IMPROVED A LITTLE
Luckily the BPL card holder people are better off than they were 2 decades ago due to generous grain/other subsidy implemented by Govt which currently is being converted into direct cash transfer to their bank accounts. Most of these travel in highly subsidised non ac classes, the fares of which are almost constant since several years and IR is now trying to recover a part of this subsidy from the hapless middleclass people travelling in reserved classes (esp. AC class, and to some extent SL class).
WEALTHY BECOMING WEALTHIER IN ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN
Once while searching something in internet, a page automatically popped out which gave an analysis done by an agency regarding change in trends of assets owned by high, middle and low economic strata people. It concluded that in last some years, share of assets owned by high income people has increased by a big margin, the middle income group had decreased substantially and surprisingly the lower income group has also increased although the increment was small i.e. only a few%. I was doing some important job and could not spare time to read the details of the analysis but I remember the final outcome. Later I tried to search that webpage, but in vain.
WHICH CLASS OF TRAVELLERS FACING MAXIMUM ECONOMIC BRUNT.
For the class of people travelling in ACIII, ACC, SL and to some extent ACII, the brunt of the economic slowdown is more.
After the treatment by Govt to middle class, the treatment given by IR by way of flexi-Suvidha-… is a double whammy.